Browsing the "Baseball" category...
The Moneyball Effect
As I revisited my past, it became apparent that Moneyball resuscitated my interest in baseball. I was a casual fan, only watching the all star game and the post season. I fell in with some rabid fans in the late 80’s, went to a lot of A’s games, and became a real fan.
Then there was the strike. A bunch of rich guys fighting over how they were going to get richer. Major League Baseball had turned its back on me and I turned my back on it.
Moneyball came out in 2003 – a new take on an old game. And just the thing to rekindle the interest of the mathematically inclined fan. And MLB had me back again. It’s still a work in progress, but it’s in progress.
A Piece of the Action
Well, it looks like the A's have locked up team leadership for the foreseeable future – Beane, Crowley get shares of the team. With an $180 million purchase price, the gifts of a tad less than 5% to Beane and a tad less than that to Crowley figure to be in the $17 million ballpark. Beane and Crowley better start saving for a whopper of a 2005 tax bill.
For Love of the Game
I know that it is a flawed movie that only works when it's about baseball. I accept that the characters are trite and predictable. But I don't care. I love For Love of the Game. And I couldn't resist buying the DVD for less than $10.
Clear the mechanism.
No Fear
He either fears his fate too much,
Or his deserts are small,
That puts it not unto the touch
To win or lose it all
James Graham - Marquis of Montrose
I expected to lose one of the big three. So while I expected it to be Zito who was moved, I accepted the trade of Huddy to Atlanta. Then I read that Agent Mulder was going to St. Louis. And I began to waver on the issue of Billy Beane: Genius or Idiot.
But upon further review, I think that Studes said it best:
Pretend You're Billy Beane … You're sitting around your Oakland office, looking at all the shenanigans in the Free Agent market. Now, you don't have enough money to pay a free agent, but you've noticed that starting pitchers seem to be in high demand this offseason -- overvalued, even. Plus, you currently have three of the best young starters in baseball on your staff, and you know you're likely to lose at least two of them in the next two years. What do you do?
Even more, Beane has a rare gift: the courage of his convictions. No one trades away two of the best young pitchers in the game. No one except Billy Beane. A man with a plan on how to win an unfair game and no fear of proving himself wrong.
Moneyball <strike>Works</strike> Worked!
Skip Sauer and John Hakes have presented a paper on An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis (via JC via Studes). From the abstract:
These methods support Lewis's argument that the valuation of different skills was inefficient in the early part of this period, and that this was profitably exploited by managers with the ability to generate and interpret statistical knowledge. This knowledge became increasingly dispersed across baseball teams during this period. Consistent with Lewis's story and economic reasoning, the spread of this knowledge is associated with the market correcting the original mis-pricing.
I wonder if Billy Beane regrets cooperating in the writing of Moneyball. The idea was sure to spread, but the it might have spread more slowly.
MLB Pulling Me Back In
I was prepared to treat this year's Major League Baseball playoffs with casual indifference. I had no real ties to any of the teams. And after the Yankees went up 3-0 and the Cardinals went up 2-0 in the LCS, I was all set.
Then the Red Sox made an unprecedented comeback to eliminate the Yankees. And the Astros won three games to go up 3-2 before the Cardinals evened their series. Now they have pulled me back in. And whether the National League is represented by the Cardinals and the Astros, I'll be watching the World Series.
Interference and Obstruction
I just don’t get Baseball Interference and Obstruction. Last night, A-Rod motions with his hand, knocks the ball out of Arroyo’s mitt, and is eventually called out on interference. Jeter, who had rounded the bases, is sent back to first even though he would have easily reached second without the interference. Last year, Mueller obstructs Tejada as he rounds third. Tejada is awarded third, allowed to advance at his own risk, and eventually ruled out at home.
Why is there a punitive penalty for interference, but no punitive penalty for obstruction? In the one case, the offending team is punished by losing a base that it would have clearly reached without the interference. In the other case, the offending team is not always punished – the umpires rule based upon their determination of the expected outcome without obstruction.
It seems to me that there should be a punitive penalty in both cases. As it is, there are cases in which it is to the fielder’s advantage to obstruct baserunners.