Email not dead yet

If we didn’t have email, then we’d have to invent something very similar. Maybe we’d limit the ability to broadcast a single message to multiple addresses and maybe we’d associate a nominal cost with each message sent. But we’d still need something very similar to support our accustomed interaction.

Some believe that collaborative workspaces make email based work processes obsolete. But I’m sceptical whether collaborative workspaces will scale. Not in the technical sense – we can build systems to handle umpteen workers and umpteen projects. But in the management sense – can we manage the combinational explosion of umpteen workers and umpteen project in all the myriad ways? Workspaces may take over formal, large and/or long-lived collaborations, but email will still own the ad hoc, small and/or short-lived collaborations.

Too much attention is focused upon building the ultimate weapon against spam. Spam is pernicious because email is free. Attach even a small cost to email and the level of spam goes down dramatically. Challenge-response approaches don’t need to requre a human response. Go ahead and let a computer respond – just make the response computationally expensive. Crypto approaches don’t need to require proof of the sender’s identity. Let anyone send – but require a uniquely generated, computationally expensive message for each recipient.

Yes, email is broken, And yes, fixing email will probably eliminate it’s use as a broadcast medium. But email is not dead yet.

Moneyball, Yet Again

The A’s have extending their losing streak while attempting to eliminate a playoff opponent to an amazing 9 games. Here in the Tri-State area (NY, NJ, CT), this is taken as proof that Billy Beane and his statistical approach to building a team are a crock. This might be a side effect of watching the abysmal Mets and their bloated payroll. Or it just might be a misunderstanding of the limits of statistics.

Because the statistics are based upon the full season. No one believes that the regular season is representative of the playoffs. Why would they that think that regular season statistics apply to the playoffs? The playoffs are different from the regular season. The teams are better, the games are closer, the pressure is more intense and managers change their patterns of play.

The Diamondbacks won the 2001 World Series by running Schilling and Johnson out to the mound as many times as it took. They would never be [ab]used like that in the regular season. But their presence makes the playoff Diamondbacks significantly different from the regular season Diamondbacks.

The regular season closer is a fraud. If you can’t earn the save with a 3 run lead in the ninth, then you aren’t a major league reliever.

You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer’s role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you paid for it.

Michael Lewis

But the great playoff closer is a thing of beauty. If you’ve got Mariano Rivera at the top of his game, then you’ve got baseball’s equivalent of the ultimate weapon. We’ve seen regular season closers wilt under the bright lights of the playoffs but the great playoff closers demand the ball and deliver the victory.

Beane needs to comb playoff statistics for a financial edge, calculate what an ALCS apperance would bring the A’s, and make a pitch for some extra money to take him over the top. He’s still got the Big Three of Mulder, Hudson and Zito. And he needs to break through before free agency takes them away.

The RSS Chasm

I love RSS. I’ve purchased two RSS aggregators (Radio Userland and NewsGator) and I regularly use a third (NetNewsWire Lite). And I’m currently subscribed to well over 100 feeds. But I’m an early adopter. I’ve got the need and the inclination. And my most frequently used aggregators (Radio Userland and NewsGator) are integrated into applications that I already use everyday.

The next challenge for RSS is Crossing the Chasm and jumping from early adopter acceptance to pragmatic usage. And one of the major obstacles is the need to use a new application for reading RSS. The obvious solution – integrate RSS aggregation into an existing application.

That’s why NewsGator is such a brilliant solution. It integrates RSS aggregation into an application that professionals already use every day. But I sometimes wonder if Greg Reinacker has chosen the right trial licensing scheme. The current license allows use of NewsGator for 14 days – what would happen if NewsGator used a cripple-ware license?

The Obstruction Penalty

There’s no excuse for Miguel Tejada giving up on the play when he was obstructed by third baseman Bill Mueller. But I can’t help but think that the penalty for obstruction should be more severe – there is no penalty unless the umpire thinks the obstruction changes the outcome of the play.

The problem is that the umpires see major leaguers play 162 games a year. They’ve seen them perform routine plays routinely. And they’re programmed to expect defensive plays to be correctly completed. For example, we all know not to assume the double play – but note how rarely major leaguers botch the double play. And as a result, I think that umpires are inclined to favor the defense over the base runner.

And that’s just not right. The defense obstructed the play and there should always be a penalty. Otherwise, the defense might be tempted to obstruct on purpose. Ties should go to the offended party and the umpire should make his decision not on what he thinks is likely to happen, but on what he is sure is going to happen. Don’t award a base if there is absolutely no chance, but award the base if there is going to be a play at the bag.

I just don’t get the idea that umpires are allowed to project what the defense is going to do but aren’t allowed to project what the base runner would have done without the obstruction. And is it fair to expect a base runner to look backwards to determine whether the umpire has stopped the play or is signalling to advance at your own risk?

But that’s all sour grapes. Major leaguers have to finish their plays. Byrnes has to make sure that he’s touched home plate and Tejada has to run hard until he knows time is called. And if the A’s lose to the Red Sox in game 5 tonight, they’ll have the entire offseason to think about it.

Power of Intangibles

Well, it looks like Saturday’s post was just in time to jinx the A’s. The A’s had several opportunities to close out the Red Sox, but managed to find new ways to fumble the opportunities away.

Only the best teams find their way to the MLB playoffs. The games are more competitive and the pressure is more intense. The A’s have now lost eight consecutive playoff games in which a win would eliminate the opposing team. I have to believe that factors either insignificant or masked during the regular season become significant during the playoffs.

Of course, given the payroll constraints that the A’s operate under, there really isn’t much else they can do. And with the reduction of the big three to a big two due to Mark Mulder’s injury, the playoff A’s aren’t as good as the regular season A’s. But teams with big payrolls should start crunching numbers on playoff performances - looking to understand why the A’s are so effective in the second half of the regular season and so ineffectual during the playoffs.

Broncos face first real test of the season

The Broncos face the first real test of the season and fall short – losing to the Chiefs 24-23. As the score indicates, it was a close run thing. The difference in the game was a Dante Hall punt return for a TD with 8:46 remaining in the game and a 53 yard missed field goal by Jason Elam with 5:52 left. With this loss, the Broncos drop to 4-1 and the Chiefs are alone atop the AFC West at 5-0.

While it was a tough loss, the Broncos remain in good shape. They will have the opportunity to avenge their loss at home later in the season. The offense had a pretty good game with 469 total yards – 176 rushing and 293 passing. The defense had a pretty good game allowing only 261 yards and holding Priest Holmes to 97 yards rushing. And most importantly, Jake Plummer’s performance should go a long way toward establishing him as a bona fide NFL QB.

Moneyball, Revisited

Hmm, this seems to be a good time to take another look at Moneyball. The Oakland A’s have made another of their patented runs through the second half of the season – validating their statistical approach to building a team for the regular season.

One of the premises of their statistical approach is that defense is overrated. So it’s quite interesting that the Marlins have just eliminated the Giants on the basis of a bad defensive play by the Giants in the 8th and a good defensive play by the Marlins in the 9th.

I can’t help but question whether statistics based upon a 162 game season are applicable to short playoff series. Nothing in the regular season compares to the pressure of a playoff series. The pressure could make the playoffs significantly different than the regular season.

It seems to me that good defense is relatively resistent to pressure. Pressure forces players to think too much. Batters have time to anticipate their next at bat and they know they’re going to make an out more than half the time. Fielders don’t know when they’ll need to make a play and they’re programmed for success.

Welcome to the new Digs

Ideoplex: from ideo for idea and plex for divided into a specified number of parts - making this my own little corner of the internet consciousness. When I decided to move my weblog to my own domain name, I was concerned whether all the good names would already be taken. But now that I’ve been through the process (knock on wood), I feel comfortable in saying that there are plenty of good names left out there. You just need to dig in and look for them.

Web hosting is provided by Page-Zone. Selecting a hosting service is not a pleasant process - there are umpteen providers with umpteen plans. And I didn’t find a satisfactory way to evaluate and compare providers. Page-Zone was responsive to my questions, provides a public forum where you can see what their current customers are saying, and was helpful when I had problems with the billing process. Which was good enough to win my business.

Going Dark

Take the First Step will be dormant for a few days. I’m in the process of moving to my own domain and will be posting infrequently until the process is complete.

I'd buy Radio Userland Again

Mark Beaty also asks whether Radio Userland is worth $39.95 – I think so. The primary contenders for hosted weblogs are Userland, TypePad and Blogger. The lowest cost TypePad option is $49.50 per year, the free Blogger weblog doesn’t provide RSS, and Blogger Pro is no longer available. At $39.95 per year (for continued support and hosting), Radio Userland has an attractive feature/cost ratio.

The real question is whether you prefer smart client/dumb server or dumb client/smart server? I like having a lightweight desktop CMS, so I like Radio Userland – your mileage may vary. Both Userland and TypePad offer a free 30-day trial. My advice is to try them out before making a decision.

In fact, I’m willing to pay Userland more. I’d pay for my own domain name. And I’d also pay to be on a faster server – especially for referrer statistics. Since I don’t have that option, I plan to move to my own hosted space in the near future.